>While regression analysis is indeed a measure of association, its use as a predictive tool in the social sciences is not without precedent. In fact, independent variables in social science research are commonly known as "predictor variables" in regression analysis.
>Rather than continue our discussion of the semantics of the word "predictive" and my "far fetched" results, I would draw your attention to a number of texts written by persons much more learned on the subject than I.
>Harrison, and Tamaschke (1984) Applied Statistical Analysis. Prentice-Hall. Pgs 317-320.
>Williams (1979). Reasoning with Statistics. Holt-Rinehart-Winston. Pgs. 137-147.
>My apologies for not having more up to date references. These just happened to be two texts that were within reach.
>On Mon Dec 7, grover wrote
>>Dr. Baker: I disagree with you in that correlation and regression analysis are predictive. Mind you I am not questioning their usefulness as a tool to understand potential mechanisms but merely questioning the use of an associative tool for its predicability. Essentially, for a predictive measure, if you were given the known variable, would you be able to predict the outcome.
>>On Sun Dec 6, Joseph Baker wrote
>>>Dear Dr. Grover,
>>>Thanks for the comments on the study. I hope you are enjoying the conference and I would enjoy hearing your suggestions for reasons why the results came out as they did. I must disagree with your suggestion that correlation and regression analyses are not predictive. Don't both these analysis techniques provide a measure of how well an outcome (i.e., binge drinking) can be predicted based on knowledge of an independent variable (sensation seeking or general self-efficacy)? As to your comment about peer pressure, I whole heartedly agree. That is likely a variable of significant influence. However, regardless of peer pressure, the moderating relationship for self-efficacy held for marijuana use and sensation-seeking only suggesting that there is something unique about this relationship. Certainly this area needs further examination.
>>>On Fri Dec 4, grover wrote
>>>>Dr. Baker: I am glad to see your nice presentation and hope you enjoy the meeting. I found your conclusions on predictability a little far fetched. The last time checked, correlation was not a predictor. It is hard to say whether the binge drinking affects self efficacy or vice-versa. Also, there is big parameter missing in this analysis - peer pressure.