Science in the City: The Spec's Meredith MacLeod interviews our Infectious Threats Panel

Spec Article

Kim Jones Sept. 27

Another public lecture of interest:
Inaugural Brockhouse Lecture
October 12, 2005

Infectious Threats Panel November 15

	Special Guest Lecturer Jay Ingram November 30
	Cliff Burgess December 6

Past Lectures
January 2003-June 2003

Past Lectures
September 2003- May 2004

Past Lectures September 2004- May 2005

Science in the City Overview and Current Schedule

How experts track viruses and prepare for world epidemic
Science in the City forum tonight at Spectator

By Meredith MacLeod
The Hamilton Spectator(Nov 15, 2005)

The following article is reprinted courtesy of the Hamilton Spectator, McMaster University’s partner in the Science in the City Lecture Series.

So just how do you talk to anxious people about the world's next pandemic without scaring them to death?

It's a very delicate balance for scientists between trying to give the public accurate, scientific information about the avian flu and potential vaccines and causing even more public fear than is already out there.

"The idea is certainly not to scare anyone but I know that people are very afraid of this," said Jonathan Bramson, a professor of pathology and molecular medicine at McMaster.

But he doesn't mince his words.

"If new types of flu carry high virulence, it can tear through a population because there is no previous immunity and everyone is susceptible."

Bramson will join anthropologist Hendrik Poinar and infectious disease specialist Mark Loeb in presenting a Science in the City lecture called From Pathogen to Pandemic: How Science is Responding to Infectious Threats. The presentation is tonight at The Hamilton Spectator.

The lecture is part of a series jointly sponsored by The Spectator and McMaster University.

The World Health Organization has warned that the next wave of killer flu could cause tens of millions of deaths and paralyse economies.

Bramson says traditional vaccines don't work with the bird flu -- H5N1. The strain of influenza A virus has already claimed more than 60 lives in Asia and led to the slaughter of more than 150-million birds.

Vaccines are normally incubated in cells in test tubes.

The virus is allowed to multiply until it's harvested out of cells. The virulence of the strain is gone but the markers are left behind that convince the immune system to jump into action.

Bramson says the problem with the bird flu is that it kills cells so fast that scientists can't get the vaccine to multiply quickly enough.

Bramson says in some ways, the world would be lucky if the next pandemic is the H5N1 avian flu.

Researchers know what it's about and have had time to work on it.

The real danger is if something else comes from right field that no one is expecting, he says.

"We don't have a lot of time before we're facing real danger. We may be better off with the devil we know.

"The only thing that is clear is that we are overdue for a pandemic."

The last pandemic hit 37 years ago and they are known to strike every 11 to 44 years.

What will elevate bird flu to a pandemic is if the virus mutates so that it can be passed easily from human to human while maintaining at least some of its virulence. Currently, it's believed to have a mortality rate of 70 per cent.

To contrast, the Spanish Flu in 1918 had a mortality rate under 5 per cent, but it was highly infectious. It spread across the planet and claimed between 20-million and 50-million lives.

Scientists have concluded that pandemic began as an avian flu that eventually changed into something that could be passed among humans.

The same thing could happen now, especially in countries where humans live in close proximity to birds, says Bramson.

"If there are 10,000 viruses in one chicken and one-million chickens in close proximity to humans, that's lots of opportunities to make the jump."

Loeb will talk about vaccine strategies and how we can overcome shortages of vaccines doses during crises.

"We don't want to incite any panic but we want to present the facts," said Loeb.

Poinar is a molecular evolutionary geneticist who directs a highly specialized ancient DNA lab at McMaster. He will talk about how looking at the evolution of virus genomes helps determine what strain the pathogen is, where it derives from and whether it has drug resistant mutations.

Poinar says understanding a virus's evolutionary trajectory can lead researchers to design "smart" vaccines.

Seats should be reserved by e-mailing sciencecity@mcmaster.ca or by calling 905-525-9140 ext. 24934. Doors open at The Spectator's auditorium on Frid Street at 6:30 p.m. for the 7 p.m. presentation.

mmacleod@thespec.com

905-526-3408